Key Issue 4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?

Main Ideas:
Malthus on Overpopulation - English economist Thomas Malthus was one of the fist to argue that the world's rate of population increase was far outrunning the development of good supplies. Malthus claimed that the population was growing at a much faster rate that the food supply (exponential vs. linear). Malthus predicted the following relationships between people and food in the future:

• Today - 1 person, 1 unit of food
• 25 years from now - 2 persons, 2 units of food
• 50 years from now - 4 persons, 3 units of food
• 75 years from now - 8 persons, 4 units of food
• 100 years from now - 16 persons, 5 units of food

Malthus' supporters, or Neo-Malthusians, are contemporary geographers taking another look at Malthus' theory because of Earth's unprecedented rate of natural increase. They argue that the gap between population growth and resources in some places is wider than Malthus expected, as well as arguing that population growth means additional stripping of all resources, not just food resources.
Malthus' critics argue that Malthus was wrong because he viewed the world supply of resources as fixed and not expanding. A steady flow of new technology has off sett scarcity of minerals and arable land by using existing resources more efficiently and substituting mew resources for new ones. Modern scientists such as Ester Boserup and Simon Kuznets state that larger populations could in fact, stimulate economic growth. Population growth could generate more customers and more ideas for improving current technology.
Declining birth rates can be prescribed through NIR. NIR has showed that in the more developed countries, CBR has dropped from 15 to 10, while in lower developed countries, it has dropped form 31 to 24, and as a world collaboratively, 27 to 21. Two strategies have been successful in lowering birth rates: the use of contraceptives and the reliance on the economy. With more education, comes more awareness and better understanding if the potential hazards of have too many children. Women, for example, now have the knowledge to realize that have children too early, or having too many at that, will hinder their ability qualify for jobs in the workforce or complete the necessary requirements for education.


Sub Topics:
Epidemiologic transition is  distinctive causes of death in each stage of the demographic transition. Epidemiology is the branch of medical science that concerned with the incidence, distribution, and control of diseases that effect large numbers of people. A pandemic is a disease that occurs over a wide geographic area and affects a very high proportion of the population.


Some major diseases present that reflect the Epidemiologic transition model are:

• Black Plague- It is speculated that this originated from infected rats. Approximately 25 million Europeans died between 1347 and 1350. An additional 13 million deaths would be accounted for in China.
• Cholera - A pandemic disease, one in which occurs over a wide geographic area and affects a very high proportion of the population, became an especially virulent epidemic in urban areas during the industrial revolution. Nearly 1.5 million people died of this disease in New York City in the year 1832. 
• AIDS- the most lethal epidemic in recent years. There were 25 million people diagnosed with AIDS in in sub-Saharan Africa in 2006, 8 million in Asia, 2 million in North America/Western Europe, and 1 million elsewhere in the world.

The chart below displays the causes of death in the developed and still developing world in 1996. The leading causes of death, according to the chart, in the developing world are infectious or parasitic diseases, which are classified as stage 1 or 2 diseases. The leading cause of death in the developed world were diseases of the circulatory system, which are classified as stage 3 and 4 diseases.

Details:

The following video illustrates the need for contraceptives in less developed countries and the plans for implementing family planning.
Empty Handed: Responding to the Demand for Contraceptives